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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TB
42.9%
DAL
57.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.256 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TB

Demar Dotson T Out Concussion
Chris Conte S Questionable Chest
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Foot
Sealver Siliga DT Questionable Calf
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Ankle
Lavonte David LB Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Chaz Green T Out Back
Demarcus Lawrence DE Out Back
Cedric Thornton DT Questionable Ankle
Barry Church S Questionable Forearm
L.P. Ladouceur LS Questionable Knee
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Foot
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Back
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot
Ronald Leary G Questionable Back
Sean Lee LB Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
J.J. Wilcox S Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
DAL 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:58 FG TB (5:58) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – DAL 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 12:38 TD DAL (12:38) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-21-E.Elliott, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TB 3 – DAL 9
  • Q2 06:27 TD DAL (6:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 01:55 FG TB (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – DAL 17
  • Q3 11:52 TD TB (11:52) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-A.Humphries for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete after roll left; ball was tipped by Carr near the goalline before Humprhies made the catch in the endzone. TB 12 – DAL 17
  • Q3 04:18 TD TB (4:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – DAL 17
  • Q4 13:37 FG DAL (13:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 20 – DAL 20
  • Q4 09:40 FG DAL (9:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 20 – DAL 23
  • Q4 03:03 FG DAL (3:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 20 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (9:51) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (5:58) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:45) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DAL 36, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 69%

    (:13) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:09) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to TB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (13:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (9:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DAL 33, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 31 for -2 yards (26-J.Robinson). PENALTY on TB-43-P.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 55%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to DAL 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (3:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 18 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to DAL 30, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 89-R.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 32-O.Scandrick at DAL 48. 32-O.Scandrick to DAL 48 for no gain (34-C.Sims).