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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP