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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to DAL 30, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model