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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model