Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- PHI offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
GB
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:55 TD GB (9:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – PHI 0
- Q1 03:49 TD PHI (3:49) 11-C.Wentz scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – PHI 6
- Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – PHI 7
- Q2 00:29 FG PHI (:29) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. GB 14 – PHI 10
- Q3 08:51 FG GB (8:51) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 17 – PHI 10
- Q3 05:26 FG PHI (5:26) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. GB 17 – PHI 13
- Q4 13:56 TD GB (13:56) (Shotgun) 22-A.Ripkowski up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – PHI 13
- Q4 02:00 FG GB (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 27 – PHI 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%
(11:23) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to GB 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 39%
(3:39) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to PHI 1, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-61-B.Goode. Philadelphia challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 03:28.)
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 74%
(:29) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%
(8:51) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%
(5:26) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 20 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 34%
(10:26) 8-D.Jones punts 34 yards to GB 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 15. 18-R.Cobb to GB 15 for no gain (42-C.Maragos). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.
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Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%
(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson ran ob at PHI 14 for 21 yards.
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.