4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model