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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to PHI 1, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-61-B.Goode. Philadelphia challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 03:28.)

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP