4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model