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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 20:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SEA
29.8%
NE
70.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE on 8 more days rest than SEA
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.190 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.126 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Michael Bennett DE Out Knee
Thomas Rawls RB Out Fibula
DeAndre Elliott CB Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Sowell T Questionable Knee
Luke Willson TE Questionable Knee
Christine Michael RB Questionable Hamstring

NE

Chris Hogan WR Questionable Back
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Alan Branch DT Questionable Back
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:30 TD NE (10:30) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 07:14 FG SEA (7:14) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – NE 7
  • Q1 01:37 FG SEA (1:37) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 10:56 TD SEA (10:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – NE 7
  • Q2 01:14 TD NE (1:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD SEA (:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 18 – NE 14
  • Q3 07:58 TD NE (7:58) 29-L.Blount left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 3 rush TD in a game ties his career high (9-17-15 vs Jax). Pats record is 4 (Jonas Gray 11-16-14 at Indy). SEA 19 – NE 20
  • Q3 02:57 FG SEA (2:57) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 22 – NE 21
  • Q4 13:05 FG NE (13:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. SEA 22 – NE 24
  • Q4 08:59 FG SEA (8:59) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 25 – NE 24
  • Q4 04:30 TD SEA (4:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – NE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (7:14) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:56) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 5 yards (49-J.Cardona; 18-M.Slater).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (1:37) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:08) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to SEA 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for -1 yards (51-B.Mingo; 43-N.Ebner).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to NE 15, Center-48-N.Frese. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 19 for 4 yards (41-D.McDonald; 21-D.Elliott).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to NE 14, Center-48-N.Frese. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 35 for 21 yards (46-W.Tukuafu; 48-N.Frese). PENALTY on NE-22-J.Coleman, Clipping, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (13:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (8:59) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Gronkowski.