Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 12 – New England Patriots 7

(6:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to NE 15, Center-48-N.Frese. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 19 for 4 yards (41-D.McDonald; 21-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model