4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 7 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(:08) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to SEA 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for -1 yards (51-B.Mingo; 43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model