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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 12

New England Patriots 21 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model