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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PIT
51.0%
PHI
49.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.149 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.171 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Senquez Golson CB Out Foot
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Roosevelt Nix RB Doubtful Back
Ramon Foster G Questionable Elbow

PHI

Zach Ertz TE Out Rib
Leodis McKelvin CB Out Hamstring
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Nose

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 3
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:32 FG PHI (5:32) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PIT 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 12:09 TD PHI (12:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 07:43 FG PIT (7:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – PHI 10
  • Q2 02:29 FG PHI (2:29) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PIT 3 – PHI 13
  • Q3 13:08 TD PHI (13:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 43-D.Sproles for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – PHI 19
  • Q3 05:48 TD PHI (5:48) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – PHI 26
  • Q3 02:31 TD PHI (2:31) 34-K.Barner right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-34-K.Barner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 3 – PHI 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (8:56) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-B.Logan), Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (5:32) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to PHI 18, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 87%

    (7:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (2:29) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:46) 4-J.Berry punts 63 yards to PHI 6, Center-60-G.Warren. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 14 yards (29-S.Thomas).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:38) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 15 for 3 yards (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 84-A.Brown (27-M.Jenkins). Penalty on PIT-66-D.DeCastro, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:47) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to PHI 18, Center-60-G.Warren. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 2 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-13-J.Huff.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (9:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to PHI 27 for 5 yards (31-J.Mills).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:08) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:36) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.