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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-B.Logan), Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model