Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(7:08) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.35 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model