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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model