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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DET
57.9%
GB
42.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.066 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
GB 20
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Ankle
DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Quadricep
Antwione Williams LB Doubtful Hamstring
Larry Warford G Questionable Illness
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Back
Riley Reiff T Questionable Ankle
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Calf
Tyrunn Walker DT Questionable Calf
Adairius Barnes CB Questionable Ankle
Wallace Gilberry DE Questionable Abdomen
Devin Taylor DE Questionable Ankle

GB

Sam Shields CB Out Concussion
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Groin
Letroy Guion DT Questionable Knee
Datone Jones DE Questionable Knee
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Lang G Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 27
–
GB 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 TD GB (11:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 02:49 FG DET (2:49) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – GB 7
  • Q1 01:07 TD GB (1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 14:51 TD GB (14:51) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-R.Rodgers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET, Defensive Holding, declined. DET 3 – GB 20
  • Q2 10:45 FG GB (10:45) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. DET 3 – GB 24
  • Q2 01:14 TD GB (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – GB 30
  • Q2 00:42 TD DET (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – GB 31
  • Q3 08:26 TD DET (8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – GB 31
  • Q3 03:18 FG GB (3:18) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. DET 17 – GB 34
  • Q4 12:35 FG DET (12:35) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 20 – GB 34
  • Q4 03:40 TD DET (3:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – GB 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

    (2:49) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:41) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (10:45) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%

    (5:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (3:18) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (12:35) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 15%

    (9:34) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to DET 12, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Roberts to DET 13 for 1 yard (91-J.Elliott).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:52) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to GB 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to DET 31 for 34 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 48-D.Muhlbach). Penalty on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 36.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:15) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DET 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Roberts to DET 38 for 15 yards (83-J.Janis, 50-B.Martinez).