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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 31 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.59 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model