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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 34 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to DET 12, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Roberts to DET 13 for 1 yard (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model