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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 23

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model