Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.127 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.046 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Tyrod Taylor in place of EJ Manuel)
- BUF on 4 more days rest than MIA
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
MIA
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:51 SAF BUF (11:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Ball snapped out of end zone. MIA 0 – BUF 2
- Q1 08:58 TD BUF (8:58) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key downfield block: C.Glenn. MIA 0 – BUF 8
- Q2 11:32 TD MIA (11:32) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 9
- Q2 07:12 FG BUF (7:12) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. MIA 7 – BUF 12
- Q2 02:32 TD BUF (2:32) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: J.Felton. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 7 – BUF 18
- Q3 10:08 TD MIA (10:08) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 19
- Q3 02:29 TD BUF (2:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on run towards rear corner of end zone. MIA 14 – BUF 25
- Q4 08:44 TD BUF (8:44) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key seal block: R.Incognito. MIA 14 – BUF 32
- Q4 03:56 FG MIA (3:56) 3-A.Franks 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 17 – BUF 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:03) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to MIA 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for 10 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to MIA 11 (foul committed during kick). PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%
(5:01) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-28-Bo.McCain, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at BUF 20.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry. PENALTY on MIA-34-Da.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%
(7:12) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%
(4:41) 4-M.Darr punts 26 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:01) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 18 yards (52-P.Brown).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 24%
(15:00) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin. PENALTY on MIA-92-J.Denney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 10.