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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 9 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model