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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 9 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry. PENALTY on MIA-34-Da.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model