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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-28-Bo.McCain, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model