Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- TEN offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.107 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.121 EPA/dropback
- MIA on 7 more days rest than TEN
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 6
MIA
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 38 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:48 TD MIA (10:48) (Shotgun) 14-J.Landry right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – TEN 0
- Q1 05:33 FG TEN (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. MIA 7 – TEN 3
- Q1 00:11 FG MIA (:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 10 – TEN 3
- Q2 05:12 TD MIA (5:12) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 16 – TEN 3
- Q3 05:50 TD MIA (5:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at TEN 30. 20-R.Jones for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – TEN 3
- Q3 00:05 TD TEN (:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 22-D.McCluster for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 24 – TEN 9
- Q4 07:43 TD MIA (7:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – TEN 10
- Q4 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 37 – TEN 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%
(5:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%
(:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 55%
(8:58) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to TEN 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to MIA 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to TEN 41 for 51 yards (59-W.Woodyard). PENALTY on MIA-49-Z.Vigil, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at MIA 14.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to TEN 48, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(13:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to TEN 49, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-D.McCluster to MIA 37 for 14 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on MIA-42-S.Paysinger, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 37.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 18%
(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 83-H.Douglas (21-B.Grimes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(1:26) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger scrambles up the middle to TEN 43 for 4 yards (78-T.Fede).
See the full breakdown →
