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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.05 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model