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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 38

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger scrambles up the middle to TEN 43 for 4 yards (78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model