Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 93

Miami Dolphins 24 – Tennessee Titans 3

(2:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to TEN 48, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model