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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

STL
18.4%
GB
81.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.344 vs Nick Foles (LA) -0.060 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

STL 15
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 13 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

STL

Alec Ogletree LB Out Ankle
Maurice Alexander S Doubtful Groin
Eugene Sims DE Questionable Knee
Kenny Britt WR Probable Knee
Robert Quinn DE Probable Not Injury Related
Chase Reynolds RB Probable Knee

GB

Sean Richardson S Out Neck
Jake Ryan LB Doubtful Hamstring
Davante Adams WR Questionable Ankle
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Knee
Demetri Goodson CB Questionable Hamstring
Jayrone Elliott LB Probable Quadricep
Clay Matthews LB Probable Quadricep
Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder
James Jones WR Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 10
–
GB 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:16 TD GB (12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-T.Montgomery for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Laurinaitis]. STL 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 01:02 TD GB (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short left intended for 89-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 24-Q.Rollins [95-D.Jones] at LA 45. 24-Q.Rollins for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. STL 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 07:16 TD LA (7:16) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 11-T.Austin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 6 – GB 14
  • Q2 01:44 FG LA (1:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 10 – GB 14
  • Q3 12:52 TD GB (12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones to LA 1 for 64 yards (23-R.McLeod). Green Bay challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 10 – GB 20
  • Q4 01:07 FG GB (1:07) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. STL 10 – GB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to GB 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 44 for 9 yards (46-C.Harkey).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 40%

    (1:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy right tackle to LA 41 for no gain (25-T.McDonald).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to GB 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 15%

    (12:32) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to LA 1, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. St. Louis challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 82%

    (1:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to GB 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 33-M.Hyde to GB 10 for no gain (38-C.Davis).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:36) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to LA 37, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for -2 yards (23-D.Randall).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass deep middle to 38-C.Davis to GB 37 for 20 yards (32-C.Banjo).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (4:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-D.Jones), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 57%

    (:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 19 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 46%

    (11:38) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:42) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to LA 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 30 for 6 yards (48-J.Thomas).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 45 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (3:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (1:07) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.