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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 24

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.73 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model