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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to LA 1, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. St. Louis challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP