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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model