Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: +0.253 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Michael Vick (PIT): -0.313 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Michael Vick in place of Ben Roethlisberger)
- BAL defense: -0.010 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- BAL offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 4
BAL
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:46 FG PIT (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 0 – PIT 3
- Q1 00:32 TD BAL (:32) 15-M.Campanaro right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 3
- Q2 01:48 TD PIT (1:48) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – PIT 9
- Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 7 – PIT 13
- Q3 10:47 TD PIT (10:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Vick pass short left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – PIT 19
- Q3 07:32 TD BAL (7:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-K.Aiken for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – PIT 20
- Q4 10:19 FG BAL (10:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – PIT 20
- Q4 00:07 FG BAL (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – PIT 20
- Q5 05:13 FG BAL (5:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – PIT 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 21 for 13 yards (34-L.Taliaferro).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 79%
(7:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to BAL 41, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%
(6:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to BAL 9, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(4:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 40 for 9 yards (28-B.Trawick). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 40.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%
(4:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 23 for -3 yards (51-S.Spence).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%
(:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 44 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake, 94-L.Timmons).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%
(10:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 12, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%
(4:20) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 43 for no gain (91-S.Tuitt, 92-J.Harrison).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%
(2:29) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 61 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 33%
(2:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 29 for -10 yards (92-J.Harrison).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 85%
(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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