Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(2:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model