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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to BAL 9, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP