Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 40 for 9 yards (28-B.Trawick). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.99 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model