Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to GB: Jay Cutler (CHI) -0.077 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.038 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
GB
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:32 FG CHI (9:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 0 – CHI 3
- Q1 00:50 TD GB (:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CHI 3
- Q2 07:54 TD CHI (7:54) 72-C.Leno Jr. reported in as eligible. 22-M.Forte left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CHI 9
- Q2 02:36 FG GB (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 10 – CHI 10
- Q2 00:13 FG CHI (:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 10 – CHI 13
- Q3 11:59 TD GB (11:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 13
- Q3 05:02 FG CHI (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 17 – CHI 16
- Q4 10:32 TD GB (10:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-27-S.McManis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. GB 23 – CHI 16
- Q4 01:59 TD GB (1:59) 73-J.Tretter reported in as eligible. 27-E.Lacy left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – CHI 16
- Q4 00:42 TD CHI (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – CHI 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(9:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 52%
(8:04) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to GB 23, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(9:29) 22-M.Forte right tackle to GB 4 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix). Measurement.
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Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%
(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%
(5:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%
(14:31) 44-J.Starks left guard to CHI 37 for 3 yards (92-P.McPhee).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(7:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(6:15) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to GB 41 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 24 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%
(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.