4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

1-0 HC Mike McCarthy
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

0-1 HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

GB
49.9%
CHI
50.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jay Cutler (CHI) -0.077 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.055 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 20 13–27
–
CHI 23 16–30
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf
Sam Barrington LB Questionable Ankle
Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder

CHI

Sam Acho LB Out Illness
Tracy Porter CB Out Hamstring
Jon Bostic LB Questionable Ankle
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Calf
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Hip
Marquess Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring
Jermon Bushrod T Probable Back
Jimmy Clausen QB Probable Concussion
Eddie Goldman DT Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 31
–
CHI 23

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 FG CHI (9:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 00:50 TD GB (:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CHI 3
  • Q2 07:54 TD CHI (7:54) 72-C.Leno Jr. reported in as eligible. 22-M.Forte left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CHI 9
  • Q2 02:36 FG GB (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 10 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:13 FG CHI (:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 10 – CHI 13
  • Q3 11:59 TD GB (11:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 13
  • Q3 05:02 FG CHI (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 17 – CHI 16
  • Q4 10:32 TD GB (10:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-27-S.McManis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. GB 23 – CHI 16
  • Q4 01:59 TD GB (1:59) 73-J.Tretter reported in as eligible. 27-E.Lacy left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – CHI 16
  • Q4 00:42 TD CHI (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (9:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:04) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to GB 23, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (9:29) 22-M.Forte right tackle to GB 4 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix). Measurement.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%

    (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%

    (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%

    (14:31) 44-J.Starks left guard to CHI 37 for 3 yards (92-P.McPhee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (7:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:15) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to GB 41 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →