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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 91

Green Bay Packers 24 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to GB 41 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.30 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 91, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 48, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model