Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 79

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

(5:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to GB 23, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model