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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 17 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(14:31) 44-J.Starks left guard to CHI 37 for 3 yards (92-P.McPhee).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model