Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- JAX defense: +0.008 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- TEN offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.098 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TEN starting Ryan Tannehill in place of Will Levis)
- TEN defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 18
JAX
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:50 FG JAX (9:50) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – TEN 0
- Q1 06:05 TD TEN (6:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 32-T.Spears for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – TEN 6
- Q2 12:31 TD JAX (12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – TEN 7
- Q2 08:33 TD TEN (8:33) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – TEN 13
- Q2 03:08 TD TEN (3:08) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – TEN 20
- Q2 00:05 FG JAX (:05) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – TEN 21
- Q3 12:49 TD TEN (12:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – TEN 27
- Q4 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – TEN 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%
(9:50) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(4:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:01) 13-T.Zentner punts 49 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 56Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 28%
(:29) (Punt formation) 13-T.Zentner FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 31, and recovers at TEN 31. 13-T.Zentner to TEN 38 for 7 yards (85-B.Strange).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 70%
(7:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones to TEN 29 for 4 yards (24-E.Molden).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:20) 13-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for 14 yards (41-O.Reese).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(7:14) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 1 for no gain (97-Q.Bohanna).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:30) 13-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 25 for 5 yards (39-M.Jackson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(1:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram.
See the full breakdown →
