Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(2:01) 13-T.Zentner punts 49 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model