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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 1 for no gain (97-Q.Bohanna).

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model