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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2023-11-23 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 13.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

WAS
31.1%
DAL
68.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.174 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

WAS

Alex Armah FB Out Hamstring
Emmanuel Forbes CB Out Elbow
James Smith-Williams DE Out Hamstring
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Toe
Khaleke Hudson LB Questionable Back

DAL

Jayron Kearse S Doubtful Back
Rico Dowdle RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 10
–
DAL 45

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:53 TD DAL (:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 11:31 FG WAS (11:31) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – DAL 7
  • Q2 08:33 TD DAL (8:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-B.Cooks for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DAL 13
  • Q2 01:55 TD WAS (1:55) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 14-S.Howell right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DAL 14
  • Q2 00:30 TD DAL (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – DAL 20
  • Q4 13:41 FG DAL (13:41) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 10 – DAL 23
  • Q4 10:38 TD DAL (10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – DAL 29
  • Q4 06:05 TD DAL (6:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – DAL 37
  • Q4 04:50 TD DAL (4:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 37. 26-D.Bland for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – DAL 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (11:40) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:11) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to WAS 3, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 3 for no gain (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 3.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 53%

    (6:00) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 88%

    (11:31) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:10) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 8, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 63%

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to DAL 41 for -2 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa, 6-D.Wilson).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:56) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 20 for 9 yards (44-T.Sieg; 99-C.Golston).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:03) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to DAL 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 5 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 74%

    (13:41) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 24 for -10 yards (95-J.Hankins).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin.