4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 8, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.56 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP