Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to WAS 3, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 3 for no gain (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model