Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Brock Purdy (SF): +0.315 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- DAL defense: -0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- SF defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
DAL
SF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:16 TD SF (11:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – SF 6
- Q2 13:26 TD SF (13:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. DAL 0 – SF 13
- Q2 07:51 TD DAL (7:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 9-K.Turpin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Armstead]. DAL 6 – SF 14
- Q2 02:40 TD SF (2:40) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-65-A.Banks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 7 – SF 20
- Q3 11:58 FG DAL (11:58) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – SF 21
- Q3 07:24 TD SF (7:24) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – SF 27
- Q4 14:22 TD SF (14:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – SF 34
- Q4 14:05 TD SF (14:05) 24-J.Mason left end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-55-L.Vander Esch was injured during the play. DAL 10 – SF 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:28) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to SF 22, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud to SF 23 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin).
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 62%
(8:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:02) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 30, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 50%
(:53) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to DAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:40) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 48, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud to DAL 38 for 14 yards (44-T.Sieg).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 60%
(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to SF 6, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud ran ob at SF 18 for 12 yards (40-H.Luepke).
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Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63%
(1:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 25 for 10 yards (20-A.Thomas; 30-G.Odum).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 73%
(11:58) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%
(8:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:03) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to SF 34, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud to SF 46 for 12 yards (33-D.Clark).
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 63%
(2:00) 32-T.Davis-Price right end to DAL 40 for -4 yards (46-M.Jefferson).