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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 42 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model