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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to DAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.59 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model