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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-01-29 · 18:30 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
38.0%
KC
62.0%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.280 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.184 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

CIN

Alex Cappa G Out Ankle
Jonah Williams T Out Knee

KC

Justin Watson WR Questionable Illness
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Back
Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Pelvis

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 FG KC (8:54) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG KC (15:00) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 08:40 FG CIN (8:40) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 03:59 TD KC (3:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – KC 12
  • Q2 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 6 – KC 13
  • Q3 09:59 TD CIN (9:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – KC 13
  • Q3 04:21 TD KC (4:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – KC 19
  • Q4 13:35 TD CIN (13:35) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – KC 20
  • Q4 00:08 FG KC (:08) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 20 – KC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:23) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to KC 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-K.Toney to KC 36 for 12 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 84%

    (8:54) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:40) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (2:10) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to CIN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CIN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 38 for 5 yards (13-N.Johnson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:05) 4-D.Chrisman punts 41 yards to KC 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 24-S.Moore to CIN 34 for 25 yards (49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 41.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to KC 6 for 35 yards (6-B.Cook).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%

    (2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 31 yards to CIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 54 yards to KC 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 47 for 29 yards (17-S.Morgan).